Tuesday, August 05, 2008

US War With Iran: Al Qaeda's opportunistic strategy

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August 4, 2008 01:33 PM
By Olivier Guitta
Part 1
While the crisis over the Iranian nuclear program is taking a nefarious turn, implications for the West and the Middle East are being assessed. But not much is said about Al Qaeda.
In fact, how is Al Qaeda going to take advantage of this situation?
I wrote a piece for the Middle East Times on that topic.
You can read the whole article here.
Israeli transport minister and potential future Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, addressing a Washington crowd on Friday, left no doubt about Israel's intentions regarding Iran's nuclear program: Israel won't let it go through. Since negotiations with Iran have gone nowhere in the past six years, military confrontation looks almost inevitable. While the international community fears the implications of such an outcome, one player can't wait for the first shots to be fired: al-Qaida.Al-Qaida has been expecting and awaiting a U.S.-Iran war over the nuclear issue. It is in fact one of the major tenets of al-Qaida's master plan. According to the late Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, the very likely collision between the United States and Iran over the nuclear issue is going to help al-Qaida advance its plan. Indeed since Iran is going to be less focused on exerting its control on Syria and Lebanon, al-Qaida will easier penetrate these two countries.
Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein in his 2005 book, "Al-Zarqawi: Al-Qaida's Second Generation" delved extensively into that issue. Thanks to his personal connection to Zarqawi - many years ago, they spent time together in prison - Hussein was able to interview him along with other major al-Qaida leaders, including Seif al-Adl, the Egyptian terrorist allegedly behind the attacks against the two U.S. embassies in West Africa in 1998.
Unsurprisingly, Hussein explains that al-Qaida's final goal is to establish an Islamic Caliphate in 20 years through seven phases. The first phase called, "The Awakening" really started on Sept. 11, 2001 when al-Qaida attacked New York and Washington D.C. These attacks supposedly awakened the Muslim nation (the "ummah") that had been in hibernation. This phase ended in 2003 when coalition troops entered Iraq.

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